Reduced genetic diversity and the success of the invasive peacock bass (Cichliformes: Cichlidae) / Diversidade genética reduzida e o sucesso da espécie invasora tucunaré (Cichliformes: Cichlidae)

Abstract Several species of Cichla successfully colonized lakes and reservoirs of Brazil, since the 1960's, causing serious damage to local wildlife. In this study, 135 peacock bass were collected in a reservoir complex in order to identify if they represented a single dominant species or multiple ones, as several Cichla species have been reported in the basin. Specimens were identified by color pattern, morphometric and meristic data, and using mitochondrial markers COI, 16S rDNA and Control Region (CR). Overlapping morphological data and similar coloration patterns prevented their identification using the taxonomic keys to species identification available in the literature. However, Bayesian and maximum likelihood from sequencing data demonstrated the occurrence of a single species, Cichla kelberi. A single haplotype was observed for the 16S and CR, while three were detected for COI, with a dominant haplotype present in 98.5% of the samples. The extreme low diversity of the transplanted C. kelberi evidenced a limited number of founding maternal lineages. The success of this colonization seems to rely mainly on abiotic factors, such as increased water transparency of lentic environments that favor visual predators that along with the absence of predators, have made C. kelberi a successful invader of these reservoirs.

Resumo Muitas espécies de Cichla colonizaram com sucesso lagos e reservatórios do Brasil desde os anos 1960, causando graves prejuízos à vida selvagem nesses locais. Neste estudo, 135 tucunarés foram coletados em um complexo de reservatórios a fim de identificar se representavam uma espécie dominante ou múltiplas espécies, uma vez que diversas espécies de Cichla foram registradas na bacia. Os espécimes foram identificados com base na coloração, dados morfométricos e merísticos, e por marcadores mitocondriais COI, 16S rDNA e Região Controle (RC). A sobreposição dos dados morfométricos e o padrão similar de coloração impediram a identificação utilizando as chaves de identificação disponíveis na literatura. Entretanto, as análises bayesiana e de máxima verossimilhança de dados moleculares demonstraram a ocorrência de uma única espécie, Cichla kelberi. Um único haplótipo foi observado para o 16S e RC, enquanto três foram detectados para o COI, com um haplótipo dominante presente em 98,5% das amostras. A baixa diversidade nos exemplares introduzidos de C. kelberi evidenciou um número limitado de linhagens maternas fundadoras. O sucesso da invasão parece depender de fatores abióticos, como a maior transparência da água de ambientes lênticos que favorece predadores visuais que, atrelado à ausência de predadores, fez do C. kelberi um invasor bem-sucedido nesses reservatórios.

Nonparametric item response models: a comparison on recovering true scores / Modelos de resposta ao item não-paramétricos: comparando a recuperação de escores verdadeiros / Modelos de respuesta al item no-paramétricos: comparando la recuperación de puntuaciones verdaderas

Nonparametric procedures are used to add flexibility to models. Three nonparametric item response models have been proposed, but not directly compared: the Kernel smoothing (KS-IRT); the Davidian-Curve (DC-IRT); and the Bayesian semiparametric Rasch model (SP-Rasch). The main aim of the present study is to compare the performance of these procedures in recovering simulated true scores, using sum scores as benchmarks. The secondary aim is to compare their performances in terms of practical equivalence with real data. Overall, the results show that, apart from the DC-IRT, which is the model that performs the worse, all the other models give results quite similar to those when sum scores are used. These results are followed by a discussion with practical implications and recommendations for future studies.(AU)

Procedimentos não paramétricos são usados para adicionar flexibilidade aos modelos. Três modelos não paramétricos de resposta ao item foram propostos, mas não comparados diretamente: o Kernel smoothing (KS-IRT); a Curva Davidiana (DC-IRT); e o modelo semiparamétrico Rasch Bayesiano (SP-Rasch). O objetivo principal do presente estudo é comparar o desempenho desses procedimentos na recuperação de escores verdadeiros simulados, utilizando escores de soma como benchmarks. O objetivo secundário é comparar seus desempenhos em termos de equivalência prática com dados reais. De forma geral, os resultados mostram que, além do DC-IRT, que é o modelo que apresenta o pior desempenho, todos os outros modelos apresentam resultados bastante semelhantes aos de quando se usam somatórios. Esses resultados são seguidos de uma discussão com implicações práticas e recomendações para estudos futuros.(AU)

Se utilizan procedimientos no paramétricos para agregar flexibilidad a los modelos. Se propusieron tres modelos de respuesta al ítem no paramétricos, pero no se compararon directamente: Kernel smoothing (KS-IRT); la curva davidiana (DC-IRT); y el modelo bayesiano de Rasch semiparamétrico (SP-Rasch). El objetivo principal del presente estudio es comparar el desempeño de estos procedimientos en la recuperación de puntajes verdaderos simulados, utilizando puntajes de suma como puntos de referencia. El objetivo secundario es comparar su desempeño en términos de equivalencia práctica con datos reales. En general, los resultados muestran que, a excepción de DC-IRT, que es el modelo con peor desempeño, todos los otros modelos presentan resultados bastante similares a los obtenidos cuando se utilizan sumatorios. Estos resultados son seguidos por una discusión con implicaciones prácticas y recomendaciones para estudios futuros.(AU)

Mathematical models to describe the growth curves of Vietnamese Ri chicken / Modelos matemáticos para descrever as curvas de crescimento do frango Ri vietnamita

Abstract Ri chicken is the most popular backyard chicken breed in Vietnam, but little is known about the growth curve of this breed. This study compared the performances of models with three parameters (Gompertz, Brody, and Logistic) and models containing four parameters (Richards, Bridges, and Janoschek) for describing the growth of Ri chicken. The bodyweight of Ri chicken was recorded weekly from week 1 to week 19. Growth models were fitted using minpack.lm package in R software and Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and root mean square error (RMSE) were used for model comparison. Based on these criteria, the models having four parameters showed better performance than the ones with three parameters, and the Richards model was the best one for males and females. The lowest and highest value of asymmetric weights (α) were obtained by Bridges and Brody models for each of sexes, respectively. Age and weight estimated by the Richard model were 8.46 and 7.51 weeks and 696.88 and 487.58 g for males and for females, respectively. Differences in the growth curves were observed between males and female chicken. Overall, the results suggested using the Richards model for describing the growth curve of Ri chickens. Further studies on the genetics and genomics of the obtained growth parameters are required before using them for the genetic improvement of Ri chickens.

Resumo O frango Ri é a raça de frango de quintal mais popular do Vietnã, mas pouco se sabe sobre a curva de crescimento dessa raça. Este estudo comparou o desempenho de modelos com três parâmetros (Gompertz, Brody e Logistic) e modelos contendo quatro parâmetros (Richards, Bridges e Janoschek) para descrever o crescimento do frango Ri. O peso corporal do frango Ri foi registrado semanalmente da semana 1 à semana 19. Os modelos de crescimento foram ajustados usando o pacote minpack.lm no software R e o critério de informação de Akaike (AIC); critério de informação bayesiano (BIC) e erro quadrático médio (RMSE) foram usados ​​para comparação de modelos. Com base nesses critérios, os modelos com quatro parâmetros apresentaram melhor desempenho do que os com três parâmetros, sendo o modelo de Richards o melhor para homens e mulheres. O menor e o maior valor dos pesos assimétricos (α) foram obtidos pelos modelos Bridges e Brody para cada um dos sexos, respectivamente. A idade e o peso estimados pelo modelo de Richard foram de 8,46 e 7,51 semanas e 696,88 e 487,58 g para homens e mulheres, respectivamente. Diferenças nas curvas de crescimento foram observadas entre frangos machos e fêmeas. No geral, os resultados sugeriram o uso do modelo de Richards para descrever a curva de crescimento de frangos Ri. Mais estudos sobre a genética e genômica dos parâmetros de crescimento obtidos são necessários antes de usá-los para o melhoramento genético de frangos Ri.

The molecular investigations on the subgenus Artemisia Less. of the genus Artemisia L. (Asteraceae) in Turkey / Investigações moleculares sobre o subgênero Artemisia Less. do gênero Artemisia L. (Asteraceae) na Turquia

Abstract The genus Artemisia L. of the family Asteraceae is systematically very complex. The aim of this study was to evaluate taxonomic positions of taxa of the subgenus Artemisia belonging to the genus Artemisia in Turkey using some molecular techniques. In this molecular study, 44 individuals belong to 14 species of the subgenus Artemisia were examined. Analyses were performed on the combined dataset using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference and Molecular parameters obtained from co-evaluations of sequences of the psbA-trnH, ITS and ETS regions of examined individuals were used in the phylogenetic tree drawing. According to the results of this study, two molecular groups have been formed based on the DNA sequence similarity of the species, but there are no obvious morphological characters corresponding to two molecular groups. There is no also agreement between the two molecular groups and the two morphological groups formed according to the hairiness condition of the receptacle of species. Due to the lack of molecular significance of their receptacles with or without hair, dividing of the subgenus Artemisia species into new subgenera or sections was not considered appropriate. Likewise, it has been found that with or without hair on the corolla lobes of the central hermaphrodite disc flowers have no molecular significance. It was found that there were no gene flow and hybridization between the 14 species of the subgenus Artemisia and these 14 species were found completed their speciation. This study is important as it is the first molecular based study relating with belong to subgenus Artemisia species growing naturally in Turkey. In addition, new haplotypes related to the populations of Turkey belonging to the subgenus Artemisia taxa were reported by us for the first time and added to the GenBank database.

Resumo O gênero Artemisia L. da família Asteraceae é sistematicamente muito complexo. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar as posições taxonômicas de táxons do subgênero Artemisia pertencentes ao gênero Artemisia na Turquia usando algumas técnicas moleculares. Neste estudo molecular, 44 indivíduos pertencentes a 14 espécies do subgênero Artemisia foram examinados. As análises foram realizadas no conjunto de dados combinado usando máxima parcimônia, máxima verossimilhança e inferência bayesiana e parâmetros moleculares obtidos a partir de coavaliações de sequências das regiões psbA-trnH, ITS e ETS de indivíduos examinados foram usados ​​no desenho da árvore filogenética. De acordo com os resultados deste estudo, dois grupos moleculares foram formados com base na similaridade da sequência de DNA das espécies, mas não há caracteres morfológicos óbvios correspondentes a dois grupos moleculares. Também não há concordância entre os dois grupos moleculares e os dois grupos morfológicos formados de acordo com a condição de pilosidade do receptáculo da espécie. Devido à falta de significado molecular de seus receptáculos com ou sem cabelo, a divisão das espécies do subgênero Artemisia em novos subgêneros ou seções não foi considerada apropriada. Da mesma forma, verificou-se que com ou sem cabelo nos lobos da corola das flores do disco hermafrodita central não tem significado molecular. Constatou-se que não houve fluxo gênico e hibridização entre as 14 espécies do subgênero Artemisia e essas 14 espécies concluíram sua especiação. Este estudo é importante porque é o primeiro estudo de base molecular relacionado com espécies pertencentes ao subgênero Artemisia crescendo naturalmente na Turquia. Além disso, novos haplótipos relacionados às populações da Turquia pertencentes ao subgênero Artemisia taxa foram relatados por nós pela primeira vez e adicionados ao banco de dados do GenBank.

Pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of antibiotics in septic children treated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation / 中华儿科杂志

Objective: To investigate the characteristics of pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) parameters of antibacterial agents in children with sepsis treated by extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). Methods: In this prospective cohort study, 20 children with sepsis (confirmed or suspected) who were treated with ECMO and antimicrobial in the Department of Critical Medicine of Hunan Children's Hospital from March 2021 to December 2022 were enrolled as the ECMO group. Through therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), the PK-PD parameters of antibacterial agents were analyzed. Twenty five children with sepsis in the same department who were treated with vancomycin but no ECMO at the same time were enrolled as the control group. The individual PK parameters of vancomycin were calculated by Bayesian feedback method. The PK parameters in the two groups were compared, and the correlation between trough concentration and area under the curve (AUC) was analyzed. Wilcoxon rank sum test was used for inter group comparison. Results: Twenty patients in the ECMO group, included 6 males and 14 females, with an onset age of 47 (9, 76) months. In the ECMO group, 12 children (60%) were treated with vancomycin, and the trough concentration was less than 10 mg/L in 7 cases, 10-20 mg/L in 3 cases, and >20 mg/L in 2 cases; AUC/minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) (MIC=1 mg/L)<400 was in 1 case, 400-600 in 3 cases, and >600 in 8 cases. Among the 11 children (55%) who were treated with β-lactam antibiotics, there were 10 cases with drug concentration at 50% dosing interval (CT50)>4 MIC and 9 cases with trough concentration>MIC, both CT50 and trough concentration of cefoperazone reached the target. Among the 25 cases of control group, 16 were males and 9 females, with an onset age of 12 (8, 32) months. There was a positive correlation between vancomycin trough concentration and AUC (r2=0.36, P<0.001). The half-life of vancomycin and the 24-hour AUC (AUC0-24 h) in the ECMO group were higher than those in the control group (5.3 (3.6, 6.8) vs. 1.9 (1.5, 2.9) h, and 685 (505, 1 227) vs. 261 (210, 355) mg·h/L, Z=2.99, 3.50, respectively; both P<0.05), and the elimination rate constant and clearance rate was lower than those in the control group (0.1 (0.1, 0.2) vs. 0.4 (0.2, 0.5), 0.7 (0.5, 1.3) vs. 2.0 (1.1, 2.8) L/h, Z=2.99, 2.11, respectively; both P<0.05). Conclusion: The PK-PD parameters in septic children treated by ECMO varied with a longer half-life, higher AUC0-24 h, lower elimination rate constant and clearance rate.

Influence of sleep fragmentation in infancy and toddler period on emotional and behavioral problem at the age of 6 years: a birth cohort study / 中华儿科杂志

Objective: To investigate the influence of sleep fragmentation in infancy and toddler period on emotional and behavioral problems at the age of 6 years. Methods: Using a prospective cohort design, 262 children were extracted from mother-child birth cohort recruited from May 2012 to July 2013 in Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Children's sleep and physical activities were assessed using actigraphy at 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months of age, from which the sleep fragmentation index (FI) at each follow-up point was calculated. Children's emotional and behavioral problems at 6 years of age were assessed using the strengths and difficulties questionnaire. Group-based trajectory model was applied to determine sleep FI in infancy and toddler period trajectory groups with Bayesian information criteria being used to determine the best fitting model. Children's emotional and behavioral problems between groups were examined with independent t test and linear regression models, etc. Results: A total of 177 children, with 91 boys and 86 girls, were included in the final analysis and were divided into 2 groups: high FI group (n=30) and low FI group (n=147). Compared with children in the low FI group, those in the high FI group presents with higher total difficulties score and higher hyperactivity or inattention score ((11.0±4.9) vs. (8.9±4.1), (4.9±2.7) vs. (3.7±2.3) scores, t=2.17, 2.23, both P<0.05, respectively), with the differences remaining significant after adjusting for covariates (t=2.08, 2.09, both P<0.05 respectively). Conclusion: High sleep fragmentation in infancy and toddler period is associated with more emotional and behavioral problems, especially hyperactivity or inattention problems, at 6 years of age.

Application of mixture analysis methods in association between metals mixture exposure and DNA oxidative damage / 中华预防医学杂志

Objectives: To study the association between metals mixture exposure and DNA oxidative damage using mixture analysis methods, and to explore the most significant exposure factors that cause DNA oxidative damage. Methods: Workers from steel enterprises were recruited in Shandong Province. Urinary metals were measured by using the inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry method. The level of urinary 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) was determined by using the ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry method. Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR), elastic net regression and quantile g-computation regression were used to analyze the association between urinary metals and urinary 8-OHdG. Results: A total of 768 subjects aged (36.15±7.40) years old were included in the study. BKMR, elastic net regression and quantile g-computation all revealed an overall positive association between the mixture concentration and increased urinary 8-OHdG. The quantile g-computation results showed that with a 25% increase in metal mixtures, the urinary 8-OHdG level increased by 77.60%. The elastic net regression showed that with a 25% increase in exposure risk score, the urinary 8-OHdG level increased by 26%. The BKMR summarized the contribution of individual exposures to the response, and selenium, zinc, and nickel were significant contributors to the urinary 8-OHdG elevation. Conclusion: Exposure to mixed metals causes elevated levels of DNA oxidative damage, and selenium, zinc, and nickel are significant exposure factors.

Burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to population aging in China, 1990‒2050 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective: The direction and intensity of population aging on the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed, and the burden of NCDs in 2050 was predicted. Methods: The disease-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study.The differences in indicators from 1990 to 2019 were attributed to the contribution of age structure, population size, and all other causes. The Bayesian age-time-cohort models were used to predict DALYs from NCDs to 2050. Results: The absolute level of DALYs caused by NCDs increased by 7.460 million from 1990 to 2019, and the age structure contributed 186.0% (95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs): 178.4%-193.6%), population size contributed 77.0% (95% UIs: 69.5%-80.8%), all other causes contributed -163.0% (95% UIs:-163.1%- -159.3%). DALYs caused by NCDs consist of 2.527 million YLLs and 4.934 million YLDs, in which the contribution of age structure to YLLs and YLDs was 414.6% (95% UIs: 396.2%-432.5%) and 69.1% (95% UIs: 66.7%-71.4%), respectively. From 2019 to 2050, the diseases with increased DALYs due to changes in age structure are cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases, neurological disorders, sense organ diseases, diabetes and kidney diseases, musculoskeletal disorders, digestive diseases, mental disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases in descending order. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2019, except for skin and subcutaneous diseases, the burden of other NCDs attributable to population aging increased, mainly due to disability. By 2050, the burden of NCDsattributable to population aging will continue to rise.

Establishment of a fast discriminant model with electronic nose for Polygonati Rhizoma mildew based on odor variation / 中国中药杂志

The odor fingerprint of Pollygonati Rhizoma samples with different mildewing degrees was analyzed and the relationship between the odor variation and the mildewing degree was explored. A fast discriminant model was established according to the response intensity of electronic nose. The α-FOX3000 electronic nose was applied to analyze the odor fingerprint of Pollygonati Rhizoma samples with different mildewing degrees and the radar map was used to analyze the main contributors among the volatile organic compounds. The feature data were processed and analyzed by partial least squares discriminant analysis(PLS-DA), K-nearest neighbor(KNN), sequential minimal optimization(SMO), random forest(RF) and naive Bayes(NB), respectively. According to the radar map of the electronic nose, the response values of three sensors, namely T70/2, T30/1, and P10/2, increased with the mildewing, indicating that the Pollygonati Rhizoma produced alkanes and aromatic compounds after the mildewing. According to PLS-DA model, Pollygonati Rhizoma samples of three mildewing degrees could be well distinguished in three areas. Afterwards, the variable importance analysis of the sensors was carried out and then five sensors that contributed a lot to the classification were screened out: T70/2, T30/1, PA/2, P10/1 and P40/1. The classification accuracy of all the four models(KNN, SMO, RF, and NB) was above 90%, and KNN was most accurate(accuracy: 97.2%). Different volatile organic compounds were produced after the mildewing of Pollygonati Rhizoma, and they could be detected by electronic nose, which laid a foundation for the establishment of a rapid discrimination model for mildewed Pollygonati Rhizoma. This paper shed lights on further research on change pattern and quick detection of volatile organic compounds in moldy Chinese herbal medicines.

Identification and biological characterization of pathogen causing black spot of Pseudostellaria heterophylla in Fujian province / 中国中药杂志

In Zherong county, Fujian province, the black spot of Pseudostellaria heterophylla often breaks out in the rainy season from April to June every year. As one of the main leaf diseases of P. heterophylla, black spot seriously affects the yield and quality of the medicinal material. To identify and characterize the pathogens causing black spot, we isolated the pathogens, identified them as a species of Alternaria according to Koch's postulates, and then tested their pathogenicity and biological characteristics. The results showed that the pathogens causing P. heterophylla black spot were A. gaisen, as evidenced by the similar colony morphology, spore characteristics, sporulation phenotype, and the same clade with A. gaisen on the phylogenetic tree(the maximum likelihood support rate of 100% and the Bayesian posterior probability of 1.00) built based on the tandem sequences of ITS, tef1, gapdh, endoPG, Alta1, OPA10-2, and KOG1077. The optimum conditions for mycelial growth of the pathogen were 25 ℃, pH 5-8, and 24 h dark culture. The lethal conditions for mycelia and spores were both treatment at 50 ℃ for 10 min. We reported for the first time the A. gaisen-caused black spot of P. heterophylla. The results could provide a theoretical basis for the diagnosis and control of P. heterophylla leaf spot diseases.

Challenges and Perspectives in Target Identification and Mechanism Illustration for Chinese Medicine / 中国结合医学杂志

Chinese medicine (CM) is an important resource for human life understanding and discovery of drugs. However, due to the unclear pharmacological mechanism caused by unclear target, research and international promotion of many active components have made little progress in the past decades of years. CM is mainly composed of multi-ingredients with multi-targets. The identification of targets of multiple active components and the weight analysis of multiple targets in a specific pathological environment, that is, the determination of the most important target is the main obstacle to the mechanism clarification and thus hinders its internationalization. In this review, the main approach to target identification and network pharmacology were summarized. And BIBm (Bayesian inference modeling), a powerful method for drug target identification and key pathway determination was introduced. We aim to provide a new scientific basis and ideas for the development and international promotion of new drugs based on CM.

Research on mild cognitive impairment diagnosis based on Bayesian optimized long-short-term neural network model / 生物医学工程学杂志

The recurrent neural network architecture improves the processing ability of time-series data. However, issues such as exploding gradients and poor feature extraction limit its application in the automatic diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI). This paper proposed a research approach for building an MCI diagnostic model using a Bayesian-optimized bidirectional long short-term memory network (BO-BiLSTM) to address this problem. The diagnostic model was based on a Bayesian algorithm and combined prior distribution and posterior probability results to optimize the BO-BiLSTM network hyperparameters. It also used multiple feature quantities that fully reflected the cognitive state of the MCI brain, such as power spectral density, fuzzy entropy, and multifractal spectrum, as the input of the diagnostic model to achieve automatic MCI diagnosis. The results showed that the feature-fused Bayesian-optimized BiLSTM network model achieved an MCI diagnostic accuracy of 98.64% and effectively completed the diagnostic assessment of MCI. In conclusion, based on this optimization, the long short-term neural network model has achieved automatic diagnostic assessment of MCI, providing a new diagnostic model for intelligent diagnosis of MCI.

Automatic sleep staging based on power spectral density and random forest / 生物医学工程学杂志

The method of using deep learning technology to realize automatic sleep staging needs a lot of data support, and its computational complexity is also high. In this paper, an automatic sleep staging method based on power spectral density (PSD) and random forest is proposed. Firstly, the PSDs of six characteristic waves (K complex wave, δ wave, θ wave, α wave, spindle wave, β wave) in electroencephalogram (EEG) signals were extracted as the classification features, and then five sleep states (W, N1, N2, N3, REM) were automatically classified by random forest classifier. The whole night sleep EEG data of healthy subjects in the Sleep-EDF database were used as experimental data. The effects of using different EEG signals (Fpz-Cz single channel, Pz-Oz single channel, Fpz-Cz + Pz-Oz dual channel), different classifiers (random forest, adaptive boost, gradient boost, Gaussian naïve Bayes, decision tree, K-nearest neighbor), and different training and test set divisions (2-fold cross-validation, 5-fold cross-validation, 10-fold cross-validation, single subject) on the classification effect were compared. The experimental results showed that the effect was the best when the input was Pz-Oz single-channel EEG signal and the random forest classifier was used, no matter how the training set and test set were transformed, the classification accuracy was above 90.79%. The overall classification accuracy, macro average F1 value, and Kappa coefficient could reach 91.94%, 73.2% and 0.845 respectively at the highest, which proved that this method was effective and not susceptible to data volume, and had good stability. Compared with the existing research, our method is more accurate and simpler, and is suitable for automation.

Network Meta-analysis of Chinese patent medicines in treatment of idiopathic membranous nephropathy / 中国中药杂志

This study aimed to systematically evaluate the efficacy and safety of different Chinese patent medicines in the treatment of idiopathic membranous nephropathy. The relevant randomized controlled trial(RCT) was retrieved from PubMed, EMbase, Cochrane Library, CNKI, SinoMed, Wanfang, and VIP with the time interval from database inception to December 2022. The Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool was employed to evaluate the quality of the included RCT, and Stata 15.0 and GEMTC to perform the Bayesian network Meta-analysis. Finally, 51 RCTs were included, involving 9 Chinese patent medicines and 3 591 patients. The results of network Meta-analysis showed that in terms of the total effective rate and the increase in plasma albumin, the top three interventions were Zhengqing Fengtongning Sustained Release Tablets + conventional western medicine, Bailing Capsules + conventional western medicine, and Tripterygium Glycosides Tablets + conventional western medicine. In terms of reducing 24-hour urine total protein, the top three interventions were Zhengqing Fengtongning Sustained Release Tablets + conventional western medicine, Shenfukang Capsules +conventional western medicine, and Huangkui Capsules + conventional western medicine. In terms of reducing serum creatinine, the top three interventions were Shenfukang Capsules + conventional western medicine, Bailing Capsules + conventional western medicine, and Zhengqing Fengtongning Sustained Release Tablets + conventional western medicine. In terms of safety, Chinese patent medicines combined with conventional western medicine had fewer adverse reactions than the control group. The results suggest that Chinese patent medicines combined with conventional western medicine can improve the therapeutic effect on idiopathic membranous nephropathy, and differentiated medications can be adopted according to the specific symptoms of patients in clinical treatment. Further validation needs to be carried out in the future with multi-center, large-sample, and high-quality RCT.

Lean strategy for data mining and continuous improvement of Chinese pharmaceutical process: a case study of sporoderm-removal Ganoderma lucidum spore powder / 中国中药杂志

In the digital transformation of Chinese pharmaceutical industry, how to efficiently govern and analyze industrial data and excavate the valuable information contained therein to guide the production of drug products has always been a research hotspot and application difficulty. Generally, the Chinese pharmaceutical technique is relatively extensive, and the consistency of drug quality needs to be improved. To address this problem, we proposed an optimization method combining advanced calculation tools(e.g., Bayesian network, convolutional neural network, and Pareto multi-objective optimization algorithm) with lean six sigma tools(e.g., Shewhart control chart and process performance index) to dig deeply into historical industrial data and guide the continuous improvement of pharmaceutical processes. Further, we employed this strategy to optimize the manufacturing process of sporoderm-removal Ganoderma lucidum spore powder. After optimization, we preliminarily obtained the possible interval combination of critical parameters to ensure the P_(pk) values of the critical quality properties including moisture, fineness, crude polysaccharide, and total triterpenes of the sporoderm-removal G. lucidum spore powder to be no less than 1.33. The results indicate that the proposed strategy has an industrial application value.

Network Meta-analysis of Chinese patent medicine containing Hirudo in treatment of atherosclerosis / 中国中药杂志

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo in the treatment of atherosclerosis(AS) by network Meta-analysis, and to provide evidence-based reference for clinical treatment of AS. The clinical randomized controlled trial(RCT) on the treatment of atherosclerosis with Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo were searched in CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, SinoMed, PubMed and EMbase from the establishment of the databases to July 1, 2022. And data extraction and quality assessment of the included RCT was performed according to the Cochrane standards. Stata 17 and ADDIS 1.16.5 were then used for Bayesian model network Meta-analysis. Finally, 67 RCTs with a total sample size of 6 826 cases were included, 3 569 cases in the experimental group and 3 257 cases in the control group, involving three oral Chinese patent medicines. Network Meta-analysis showed that in terms of reducing intima-media thickness(IMT), the top three Chinese patent medicines were Tongxinluo Capsules+sta-tins>Maixuekang Capsules+statins>Maixuekang Capsules. In terms of reducing plaque area, the top one was Maixuekang Capsules+sta-tins, and the other Chinese patent medicines had similar efficacy. For lowering AS Crouse scores, the top three were Maixuekang Capsules>Tongxinluo Capsules+statins>Naoxintong Capsules. For decreasing plaque number, the top three were Naoxintong Capsules+sta-tins>Tongxinluo Capsules+statins>Tongxinluo Capsules. With regard to adverse reactions/events, Naoxintong Capsules+statins had the lo-west incidence. In conclusion, in Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo for the treatment of AS, Tongxinluo Capsules+statins, Maixuekang Capsules, Maixuekang Capsules+statins, and Naoxintong Capsules+statins were the primary choices to reduce IMT, AS Crouse scores, plaque area, and plaque number, respectively. The efficacy of Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo with or without statins was more significant than that of statins alone in the four outcome indexes. Additionally, the treatment of AS should be evaluated comprehensively, and attention should be paid to Chinese patent medicines or their combination with western medicine, to optimize the treatment effect and minimize adverse reactions as the benchmark.

Study of incubation period of infection with 2019-nCoV Omicron variant BA.5.1.3 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To study the incubation period of the infection with 2019-nCoV Omicron variant BA.5.1.3. Methods: Based on the epidemiological survey data of 315 COVID-19 cases and the characteristics of interval censored data structure, log-normal distribution and Gamma distribution were used to estimate the incubation. Bayes estimation was performed for the parameters of each distribution function using discrete time Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Results: The mean age of the 315 COVID-19 cases was (42.01±16.54) years, and men accounted for 30.16%. A total of 156 cases with mean age of (41.65±16.32) years reported the times when symptoms occurred. The log-normal distribution and Gamma distribution indicated that the M (Q1, Q3) of the incubation period from exposure to symptom onset was 2.53 (1.86, 3.44) days and 2.64 (1.91, 3.52) days, respectively, and the M (Q1, Q3) of the incubation period from exposure to the first positive nucleic acid detection was 2.45 (1.76, 3.40) days and 2.57 (1.81, 3.52) days, respectively. Conclusions: The incubation period by Bayes estimation based on log-normal distribution and Gamma distribution, respectively, was similar to each other, and the best distribution of incubation period was Gamma distribution, the difference between the incubation period from exposure to the first positive nucleic acid detection and the incubation period from exposure to symptom onset was small. The median of incubation period of infection caused by Omicron variant BA.5.1.3 was shorter than those of previous Omicron variants.

Covid-19 hospital mortality using spatial hierarchical models: cohort design with 74, 994 registers

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To investigate the relationship between covid-19 hospital mortality and risk factors, innovating by considering contextual and individual factors and spatial dependency and using data from the city of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS The study was performed with a spatial hierarchical retrospective cohort design using secondary data (individuals and contextual data) from hospitalized patients and their geographic unit residences. The study period corresponded to the first year of the pandemic, from February 25, 2020 to February 24, 2021. Mortality was modeled with the Bayesian context, Bernoulli probability distribution, and the integrated nested Laplace approximations. The demographic, distal, medial, and proximal covariates were considered. RESULTS We found that per capita income, a contextual covariate, was a protective factor (odds ratio: 0.76 [95% credible interval: 0.74-0.78]). After adjusting for income, the other adjustments revealed no differences in spatial dependence. Without income inequality in São Paulo, the spatial risk of death would be close to one in the city. Other factors associated with high covid-19 hospital mortality were male sex, advanced age, comorbidities, ventilation, treatment in public healthcare settings, and experiencing the first covid-19 symptoms between January 24 and February 24, 2021. CONCLUSIONS Other than sex and age differences, geographic income inequality was the main factor responsible for the spatial differences in the risk of covid-19 hospital mortality. Investing in public policies to reduce socioeconomic inequities, infection prevention, and other intersectoral measures should focus on lower per capita income, to control covid-19 hospital mortality.

Exploring the Feasibility of Machine Learning to Predict Risk Stratification Within 3 Months in Chest Pain Patients with Suspected NSTE-ACS / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

OBJECTIVE@#We aimed to assess the feasibility and superiority of machine learning (ML) methods to predict the risk of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACEs) in chest pain patients with NSTE-ACS.@*METHODS@#Enrolled chest pain patients were from two centers, Beijing Anzhen Emergency Chest Pain Center Beijing Bo'ai Hospital, China Rehabilitation Research Center. Five classifiers were used to develop ML models. Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F-Measure and AUC were used to assess the model performance and prediction effect compared with HEART risk scoring system. Ultimately, ML model constructed by Naïve Bayes was employed to predict the occurrence of MACEs.@*RESULTS@#According to learning metrics, ML models constructed by different classifiers were superior over HEART (History, ECG, Age, Risk factors, & Troponin) scoring system when predicting acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and all-cause death. However, according to ROC curves and AUC, ML model constructed by different classifiers performed better than HEART scoring system only in prediction for AMI. Among the five ML algorithms, Linear support vector machine (SVC), Naïve Bayes and Logistic regression classifiers stood out with all Accuracy, Precision, Recall and F-Measure from 0.8 to 1.0 for predicting any event, AMI, revascularization and all-cause death ( vs. HEART ≤ 0.78), with AUC from 0.88 to 0.98 for predicting any event, AMI and revascularization ( vs. HEART ≤ 0.85). ML model developed by Naïve Bayes predicted that suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS), abnormal electrocardiogram (ECG), elevated hs-cTn I, sex and smoking were risk factors of MACEs.@*CONCLUSION@#Compared with HEART risk scoring system, the superiority of ML method was demonstrated when employing Linear SVC classifier, Naïve Bayes and Logistic. ML method could be a promising method to predict MACEs in chest pain patients with NSTE-ACS.

HIV-1 Transmission among Injecting Drug Users is Principally Derived from Local Circulating Strains in Guangxi, China / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

OBJECTIVE@#The mode of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission via injection drug use (IDU) still exists, and the recent shift in IDU-related transmission of HIV infection is largely unknown. The purpose of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal sources and dynamics of HIV-1 transmission through IDU in Guangxi.@*METHODS@#We performed a molecular epidemiological investigation of infections across Guangxi from 2009 to 2019. Phylogenetic and Bayesian time-geographic analyses of HIV-1 sequences were performed to confirm the characteristics of transmission between IDUs in combination with epidemiological data.@*RESULTS@#Among the 535 subjects, CRF08_BC (57.4%), CRF01_AE (28.4%), and CRF07_BC (10.7%) were the top 3 HIV strains; 72.6% of infections were linked to other provinces in the transmission network; 93.6% of sequence-transmitted strains were locally endemic, with the rest coming from other provinces, predominantly Guangdong and Yunnan; 92.1% of the HIV transmission among people who inject drugs tended to be transmitted between HIV-positive IDUs.@*CONCLUSION@#HIV recombinants were high diversity, and circulating local strains were the transmission sources among IDUs in Guangxi. However, there were still cases of IDUs linked to other provinces. Coverage of traditional prevention strategies should be expanded, and inter-provincial collaboration between Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong provinces should be strengthened.